Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Here Comes Huckabee! (and Edwards)

My apologies for the lack of postings around here. I know there is plenty of news out there, but I have been terribly distracted. Anyway, I had to note this because my favorite Republican candidate is doing very well in the polls. This is good news for me, because like I have stated before, I believe that (aside from Ron Paul) Huckabee is the only honorable Republican of the bunch. However, more importantly, the candidate I officially endorse, John Edwards, in neck and neck (and neck) with Hillary and Obama. In fact, according to a CBS / NYT poll...
Democrats and Republicans are both headed toward heated showdowns in Iowa, where, according to a new CBS News/New York Times poll, Hillary Clinton holds a statistically insignificant lead over John Edwards and Barack Obama, and GOP hopeful Mitt Romney finds his long-held position as the state's front-runner challenged by a surging Mike Huckabee.

The situation in Iowa, where nominating caucuses are scheduled for Jan. 3, is in stark contrast to New Hampshire, where Clinton and Romney continue to hold large leads among those likely to vote in the state's first-in-the-nation primary, which could come only days after Iowa's contests.

But in both states, large chunks of voters have yet to make up their minds, meaning the results of the contests that will kick off the 2008 nominating season are still difficult to predict.

In Iowa, the Democratic contest is knotted up. Among likely caucus-goers, Clinton came out on top with 25 percent support, but she was trailed closely by Edwards at 23 percent, and Obama at 22 percent. With a margin of error of 4 percentage points, there is no clear leader. Trailing behind was Bill Richardson, at 12 percent, with all other candidates in single digits.


While the Democratic contest in Iowa has been a three-way battle for some time, most polls have shown Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, with a strong lead in the Hawkeye State, dominating the GOP field. Recent surveys, however, have shown Huckabee picking up steam, and he is well within striking distance in the CBS News/New York Times poll, where he trails Romney, 27 percent to 21 percent, with a 5 percent margin of error.

Rudy Giuliani was in third at 15 percent. All other candidates were in single digits, including Fred Thompson, who had 9 percent support among likely caucus-goers.

While Romney still leads in Iowa, his support base is far softer than that of Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor whose campaign has gained momentum in recent weeks. Half of Huckabee supporters said they had made up their mind, compared to two-thirds of Romney supporters who said they could change their mind before caucus night. Overall, 57 percent of GOP caucus-goers said they haven't settled on one candidate.

Huckabee could run into trouble if immigration is as important an issue as the poll indicates. When asked what issue candidates should discuss, illegal immigration topped the list at 20 percent, and 44 percent of caucus-goers said illegal immigrants should lose their jobs and leave the country. Huckabee has been criticized for supporting pre-natal care for immigrants and educational opportunities for the children of immigrants, and only 13 percent said Huckabee agreed with them on this issue, compared to 26 percent for Romney.

More on page 1, page 2...
LINK: Poll: Top Democrats Deadlocked In Iowa

So, there is some good news out of Iowa for this blog. Now, I will be gone this weekend: off to Ft. Benning, GA for the annual School of the Americas Protest, something that was almost successfully closed this past Summer. I will blog about my experience when I return.

-Mr. Joseph

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